NEAR by the Numbers
A long-term investment thesis for NEAR Protocol, backed by live on-chain data.
Every figure here is produced by model.py from public sources and can be re-run by anyone.
The full written report is ANALYSIS.md in the repository. Snapshot: 2026-11-09T09:59:57.643347+00:00
Price history — 365 days
365 days of daily closes. Window low $0.96 · window high $5.89 · annualized volatility 102.8% · max drawdown -68.4%
The bull case, in evidence
- Usage is real and cumulative: 5,477,965,357 lifetime transactions, 371 nodes online, blocks every ~0.566s across 1 shards (152,650 blocks/day).
- Holders commit: 580,980,506 NEAR — 44.31% of all supply — is staked across 339 validators instead of sitting on exchanges.
- Dilution is mostly behind it: 95.32% of total supply already circulates.
- Liquidity is large-cap grade: 24h volume $533,051,366 = 11.53% of market cap — among the deepest turnover in the peer table below.
- De-rated, not dead: -82.73% below the $20.44 ATH, yet the 365-day return is 15.5% and the network metrics above kept compounding.
The bear case, honestly
- Stake is concentrated at the top: Nakamoto coefficient is 9 — the top 9 pools together hold over a third of all stake (top 10: 36.25%).
- Volatility is extreme: 102.8% annualized over the last year, with a -68.4% maximum drawdown inside the window. Position sizing is not optional.
- Fee revenue is not in this model: only metrics public APIs report directly are used; protocol fee income and burn are future work (see README).
Peer benchmark — major L1s, market structure
| Asset | Price | Market cap | 24h vol / mcap | vs ATH | 1y change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | $2,108.43 | $257,657,750,496 | 5.27% | -57.4% | -38.0% |
| SOL | $86.45 | $51,097,108,478 | 5.07% | -70.5% | -45.5% |
| ADA | $0.18 | $6,602,727,735 | 3.2% | -94.3% | -68.8% |
| NEAR | $3.53 | $4,623,484,111 | 11.53% | -82.7% | 28.0% |
| AVAX | $8.01 | $3,570,621,109 | 4.83% | -94.5% | -53.3% |
| SUI | $0.82 | $3,408,720,624 | 9.51% | -84.6% | -60.7% |
| DOT | $0.87 | $1,481,017,973 | 4.78% | -98.4% | -72.4% |
| ATOM | $1.34 | $722,153,673 | 5.43% | -97.0% | -54.4% |
| APT | $0.58 | $509,144,192 | 5.77% | -97.1% | -81.0% |
Market structure only (CoinGecko): NEAR trades at a large-cap size with turnover comparable to peers several times its market cap, while sitting deeper below its ATH than most of the set — the "de-rated but liquid" profile the thesis prices.
Valuation scenarios (arithmetic, not predictions)
Price targets applied to today's circulating supply of 1,249,836,992 NEAR.
| Scenario | Price | Implied market cap | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| Re-rate to $5 | $5.00 | $6,249,184,961 | 1.42x |
| Re-rate to $10 | $10.00 | $12,498,369,922 | 2.83x |
| Back to all-time high | $20.44 | $25,546,668,120 | 5.79x |
| 2x all-time high | $40.88 | $51,093,336,239 | 11.58x |
Method & sources
- NearBlocks API — supply, price, market cap, volume, lifetime transactions, nodes online.
- NEAR mainnet RPC — chain status and the live validator set; stake shares and the Nakamoto coefficient are summed directly.
- CoinGecko — 365 days of daily closes and the L1 peer set.
- Raw responses committed in
data/snapshot_raw.json; derived values indata/metrics.json.
Re-run it yourself: python3 model.py && python3 build_dashboard.py — Python 3 standard library only, no API keys.
Built by team zarroww for the NEAR Hackathon (Investment Thesis track). Research and education only — not financial advice.